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Pattern:

 

2. Test assumptions

Challenging early thinking before options harden and commitments form.

This is where the quality of the eventual decision is most often determined — and where independent peer input is most scarce and most valuable.

Description

If you have named the problem — you have a working hypothesis about what is limiting supply chain capability and what kind of investment might address it — but you have not yet committed to a direction and are actively testing whether your read is correct, this is where the quality of the eventual decision is most often determined.

This stage sits between general orientation and vendor evaluation. You are past the point of wondering whether something needs to change. You are not yet at the point of inviting vendors to present. The work here is resolving what kind of solution architecture is actually appropriate for your situation — before any vendor has had the opportunity to anchor the conversation.

This is also the stage where independent peer input is most scarce and most valuable. Vendors cannot be trusted as advisors here because they have a stake in the outcome. Consultants often do too. Reference calls are vendor-selected. The only genuinely independent source is a practitioner who has resolved a comparable architecture question in a comparable context with no commercial stake in the outcome.

Where teams tend to get stuck

Teams at this stage often move forward with more certainty than is warranted.

Common patterns include treating early hypotheses as settled decisions and moving to solution evaluation before the problem framing has been independently tested; relying on a narrow set of perspectives, particularly those of people who already share the same assumptions; assuming alignment where assumptions actually differ across teams, which only becomes visible when finance, IT, or leadership engage; and skipping the architecture direction question by moving directly from problem awareness to vendor demonstrations without resolving what kind of solution is actually appropriate.

Because progress feels real at this stage, these gaps often go unchallenged until they surface later as resistance, rework, or loss of confidence in the investment case.

What tends to help

What is most valuable at this stage is constructive challenge, not validation.

Leaders in similar situations typically benefit from exposing assumptions to informed peer perspectives — people who have navigated comparable architecture decisions in comparable contexts; understanding how others approached the build versus buy versus compose versus wait question, including what they would do differently; testing whether the diagnosis is correct before it hardens into a solution preference; identifying blind spots before options narrow, particularly around data readiness, organisational capability, and the hidden costs of different architecture routes; and separating what is known from what is still assumed.

This is less about finding answers and more about improving the quality of the direction that is forming.

Related to this Pattern on this page

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Capability-focused Roundtable Discussions

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